2. 另外在24元上下推薦,作led的 cree ,昨收27元,如有拉回到26.5附近,應該也是不錯的加碼點或空手者的切入點, 之前提過未來12個月內,法人看到50元. 我看不用到12個月,快的話應不要半年. 其短壓在30元附近,到時整理後,可望像intel在22到23的壓力一樣會向上突破.
3. sandisk (代號 sndk)最近受到50元的壓力壓回, 昨收48.4,如有回到46到47元,應是不錯的買點. 50元整理後,我評估可到64元,詳情可看分析師評鑑
4.從去年來我就一路看多美股, 預估nasdaq在2650附近整理後,可望向3100到3200挑戰; dow jones在13,200到13,700間整理後,明年11月美國大選前,可向16,000挑戰.
5. 其實,除了台灣股市外,我最強的分析是在石油,黃金,及各國指數期貨 (但因這種商品波動較劇烈,通常只與bikerdoc討論) ,有空再跟各位分析.
6. 至於台股今年保守可攻到9800, 在這之前 9,150附近應會震盪.
15 則留言:
Tofu, with the new energy bill pass throught US senate yesterday, I agree with you Cree will pass $50 within 12 month. Thanks for the tips.Could be a long term hold also.
I will give you a call next time when I in Taipei, either in August or Oct.
Come next time in Austin, I will buy you good dinner.
David Lu
Taiwan companies produce LED more than any countries. Blue, UV, white, low power, high power LED, whatever. My question is how Cree can compete with Taiwan companies.
Guys, stock picking is the game at this juncture. Be cautious. I am not trying to rain on your parade. The market is actually floating on a very dangerous platform, imho. In short, the booming market is inflated by the unlimited injection of paper money by central banks worldwide. Just take a look at M3 (M3b) money supply of the US at: http://www.nowandfutures.com/key_stats.html
The recent bad news is that the CDO (collateralized debt obligation) is an illiquid market without regulation. The subprime mortgage sector can drag down the world economy in a heartbeat. Take a read: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/07/02/ccview102.xml
Winston, when come to consumer electronic equipment, US is trailing Japan, Taiwand &
Singapore for about six months to one year. Cree make LED material. Just like few years ago, Asia businessweek had an article talked about whole display industry, only Corning and 3M made the most of money. Both companies made more than whole display industry made because one make glass and the other make display bright enhance film with patent protection.
BikerDoc65, I say this stock because I do not own it yet, so it will go up. Once I am in it will go down, that is my stock pick logic. Stock is a game that always make you mad, You mad when you sold at loss and you still mad when you do not sell at highest point.
Another bank....
Blow-up costs Milan bank €610m
Last Updated: 1:47am BST 05/07/2007
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/07/04/cnmilan104.xml
..more..
Monday view: Credit crunch will 'shred investment portfolios to ribbons'
By Ambrose Evans- Pritchard
Last Updated: 1:49am BST 05/07/2007
The near collapse of two Bear Stearns hedge funds has lifted the rock on our 21st century mutant capitalism, exposing the bugs beneath to a rare shock of naked light.
When creditors led by Merrill Lynch forced a fire-sale of assets, they inadvertently revealed that up to $2 trillion of debt linked to the crumbling US sub-prime and "Alt A" property market was falsely priced on books.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/07/02/ccview102.xml
Another fund is caught pants down:
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/04/business/04bonds.html?_r=2&ref=business&o&oref=slogin
A Mortgage-Securities Hedge Fund Suspends Payouts
By VIKAS BAJAJ
Published: July 4, 2007
In another sign that troubles in the mortgage market are spreading, a prominent hedge fund that specializes in bonds backed by home loans has suspended redemption requests by investors.
The Horizon ABS Fund managed by John Devaney, a well-known trader of asset-backed securities who is based in Florida, said yesterday that it made the decision to block withdrawals after one investor who accounted for about a quarter of its $650 million in assets sought to leave the fund....more.
Hi David and Winston,
You guys posted are very interesting subjects and bought back a vivid memory within me. I learned a very educational experience while I was in graduate school about what patents really mean besides protecting inventions.
Here is the story. My advisor gave me a project from a company making and selling wooden floor adhesives. This company wanted us to analyze a competitor’s product and find out if it infringes their patent. I read the patent thoroughly and understood their claims. But, I found the competing product was made very differently. So I called the owner-inventor to send me his own product so that I can make direct side-by-side comparison of these two products. After analyzing it, I found that he didn’t make the product claimed in the patent. So, I called him about what I found. He went berserk and yelled at me: “I can make my own Gxx damx product any way I wanted to”. Ha, the project ended right at there. I still don’t know the real reason why he was willing to send me his own product for analysis if he knew it was made differently. LOL
This experience taught me a lesson that a patented position also provides an additional purpose besides protecting intellectual properties, which is used for marketing purpose in order to sell a perceived value of this technology within its business environment. I guess both of you have had the similar experience after working in the industry for many years, which is that the business value of a product is what the customers are willing to pay for. As long as the customers satisfy with the value they received, they really don’t care if it is patent protected. In this case, a patent position is used as a very important tool for marketing. Customers really don’t know how the companies make these products. In many real cases, the patented technologies make products so expensive, which can’t compete with those made by un-protected know-how’s. What I learned is that selling perception is also a backbone of a successful business plan besides technology advantages, if there is any, or worse. Actually, very often an inferior product can out-sell a product having advanced technologies. The bottom line is that the “perceived” value of a product and marketing strategies can also win the business war. I call it a war because there is no mercy in real business. Any thing goes. Many of our classmates have been in business for many years; I guess they know this too well. LOL
What I wrote is unrelated to LED or CREE… just want to shares some of my thoughts.
By the way, Tofu is a master stock analyst. He knows stock trading better than 99.999% of traders. May be, he should open another blog for stock trading tips. LOL
Since Tofu is a master in stock investment better than most of us, how about setup a fund, so he can make us all become millionaires and we all can retire or retire earlier. Of course, Tofu, no pressure.
感謝何博士的抬愛,何博士雖是玩笑話.但操作他人的錢,聽起來沒什麼壓力,事實上,真的作起來,比操自己的錢壓力大,
幾年前到10幾年前,我也有幫人操作,一各戶頭從最少1,000萬,到後來最少5,000萬. 行情好時,還好做,但行情走到高檔時,就很難做了...而多數的人在低檔,是最好的進場點時,都不看好股市,或不會想要請人做,等到行情走了一大段,自己又還沒賺到什麼錢,或行情到頂,反轉下來,手上股票被套牢了,才要找人幫忙.
好在這邊行情雖已走了一段, 但不管美國或台灣應才走了一半而已,找機會切入都不會太晚.
像之前提的cree 及sandisk(sndk)其實都還可切入. cree的led,市場真的很大,想一想現在有誰家的燈泡,車燈,城市的路燈,是led做的,有誰的電腦的lcd 面板的背光源或lcd電視的背光源是led做的.應該都非常少,以後這些都要改為led,光想到大陸跟美國的路燈要改為led就有多大的市場,這就好像1985年前的pc,1995年前的internet或手機.(台灣最好的led股是晶電2448,其次是華上6289),有拉回都值得找個點切入.
另外我很看好flash. sndk就生產flash.光是iphone 和即將出來的ipod tv,一個月就需要1,000顆8g的flash,其他的新產品對flash或記憶卡的需求都非常的大,像今年在美國最佳10種聖誕禮物裡的電子像框,就要用到flash,..在台灣跟flash有關的各股如做flash記憶卡ic的群連8299,安國8054,都大漲特漲,,...有空再大家分析.
更正:
光是iphone 和即將出來的ipod tv,一個月就需要 "1,000萬" 顆8g的flash. 少打了個"萬"字.
Tofu, any suggestion for OLED market? It still in experimental, but any suggestion for which company in Taiwan or US my be awinner?
Hey Tofu, think of Ho Ho's suggestion.
No pressure indeed, may have a lot pleasure!
Guys,
The US market is in trouble now. Be careful! US Dollar just fell near its multi-year low. You'll need lots of luck. Take care.
I long gold and short the stock market. Ha..wish me luck too.
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