上周二登出對cree 及 sandisk 的看法 ,班上同學反應還蠻熱烈的,顯然到了我們這個年紀,很多人或多或少都有投資,而且投資也成為不少同學的生活重心之一,有不同學甚至已成專家.
之前寫了10幾年的投資專欄, 我看我現在可能沒有時間如bikerdoc 所說的,來開個股市部落格,但如有時間到可多來談談股市投資,尤其我看這個行情,是近幾年來少有的大多頭,如果錯失掉,實在可惜.
上周二時,我們指出cree到30元後可能會拉回, 拉回後正好是之前沒進場,或想要加碼的好買點. 未來幾天如果有拉回到27元上下,應是不錯的進場點.
至於sandisk (sndk)可能要到54到56附近才會有較大的壓力; intel (intc)多頭趨勢不變, 28到30才會有較大的壓力,到時看看要不要獲利一趟.
至於台股,未來1到2年的行情很大,不管藍綠誰當選,兩岸關希改善是頗為確定的事, 保守可看到12,000,強勢的話,兩岸如果簽定30或50年和平協定的話,18,000點應是起碼的點數.
短線上,台股漲了不少(還沒漲完),我看好的很多股票如 Ic設計的 創意3443(台積電持股37.6%), 安國8054, 群連8299(這裡檔都是做flah及相關的ic), 聯電的智原3035, 世界最大的nb電池廠-新普6121, led的晶電2448(世界最大的四元紅光led,也是世界第三大的藍光led廠),華上6289(四元紅光全球佔有率25%,僅次於晶電的50%),也都漲幅不小,如有拉回好的買點再切入.
另外,美國預計將於2008年底,回收電視的類比訊號頻道, 因此對3,000萬低收入家庭,有40美元的coupon補助,憑該券可購買D2A的 STB(digital to analogue 的 set-top-box 電視機上盒), 已知台灣的致振3466有接到部份的(對該公司來說很大)訂單, 預估明年eps至少15元,今年約8元.(7/12 早上 修正: 我朋友昨天剛拜訪公司,該公司高層表示這批的毛利率不高, 因此公司估獲利也不會太高. 不知是真如此,還是公司派沒吃到貨,故意說的保守,反正有疑慮,那就算了).
至於道隆兄提到的 oled (organic light emitting diode,有機發光二極體) 是未來新一代的平面顯示器,可以印在彎曲的平面上,但跟led 可做光源不同. 我幾年前剛好也有投資oled 相關類股,也有作部份產業研究.
以2006年來看,根據displaysearch的統計,第一大的是三星約1億美元, lge第2大,9300萬美元,台灣的錸寶是第三大7900萬美元,但都沒賺錢,去年錸寶還大虧,到了年底賣給了三星, 就我的了解,投資oled的風險仍相當大, 實在不如投資未來5到10年遠景亮麗且都已賺錢的 led產業.....以後有空再跟各位同學介紹.
14 則留言:
Dear Tofu: I am one of your longtime diehard stock analysis reader, all of your recently suggested stocks performed very well just as you had predicted. For that I deeply appreciate your wisdom. However, I like to know just in case if a stock I bought started going down the drain, at what point should I get rid of it?
Sincerely, a member of Chemistry65.
Just don't let it go down more than 8%, since it will take close to 10% of run up to make the loss you have. If you let it go down to 15%, than it will take 20% run up to make the loss you have. The math is not in your favor.
Stock always compete with Bond, if you can make more return on equity than do it, if not why throw a good money away? Just put money into bond and walk away for a good sleep!
Tofu, thanks for the update! You do a good research job for what you are doing! Look forward for your update! Let us know when is about the time to get out also! My problem is buy high and get stuck!
"Stock always compete with Bond, if you can make more return on equity than do it, if not why throw a good money away? Just put money into bond and walk away for a good sleep!"
David,
The value of bonds can drop a lot if interest rate kept on rising. That is the reason why there are many people make tjeir living as bond traders. They bet on the rise and drop of yields of bonds (Treasuries).
Dear classmates: I want sleep well, and I want long term (3-5 years). What stocks or mutual funds do you suggest? Many of my stock go up, then crash, such as Amgen, Affymetrix. Or as David said, sell it and do not let it go down over 8%.
both ming shen and doc. ho brought out a very good question "when to use stop loss or when to take the profits out of the table and leave?"
david's 8% rule may work well sometimes, but the chance are we might sell our positions in a short term pullback which is more than 8% ,and miss another much bigger and sweeter rally, say 50% or 100%.
then, do we have some other better ways to solve this problem and let our doc ho sleep well? yes we do.
but it's not possible to cover them in just a few lines, and don't forget the nobel-prize winner milton friedman's famous saying "there no such thing as a free lunch".
so what do you guys will treat me this time, if i can tell you the methods to solve those problems which have been deeply rooted inside your mind? ha.ha.ha. no coupon is accepted this time!
please wait and stay tuned, more details will be posted on our blog later when i'm not so busy.
how can i miss typing this famous and important line "there is no such thing as a free lunch." ha.
Haha...you forgot to add that only pretty girls get free lunch.
經豆腐這麼一說我倒是有些內疚了，好吧!既然已經明說不收空頭支票，那只好想其他的辦法；這個股市收尾的絕技不能不學，
這樣吧，我們這群同學今後如果有生小孩，不管是男是女，都讓他(她)姓 杜，如何? 這個禮夠大了吧!
Guys,
Both Tofu and I like Stan Weinstein’s book “Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets”.
It teaches us how to use buy and sell stops and stop-limits with “good till canceled” orders for long term investing while protecting potential gains and limiting loses. I bought several copies of this book as gifts for relatives. I think it will help you tremendously. You can borrow it from local library or buy it from Amazon.com.
It is a book very easy to read and understand. Good luck.
Hi everyone,
"LSBRX"`is a bond fund with good record. It is a good place to park your money if you are interested in investing in bond.
YWang
哇, 養賢大人,您老好像已經封關數十載,終於又出山了, 難得!
我剛從外面回來(到star跟小女子家下面,站了一天一夜,詳情以後再報告), 一到家,打開我們的部落格一看, 有王博士的留言,而且跟大家分享好的投資標的, 真是令人高興.
我說的沒錯,我們同學中還不少人在投資上,有不少的心得,像bikerdoc,這幾年在黃金投資上也大有斬獲,雖然我們這blog開的稍晚,但在投資上,永遠不嫌晚,希望其他同學也能分享這幾年的投資心得.
Wow...Dr. Wang showed up for bonds. This is an exciting event.
I found this page gave several good ideas for bond funds after searching for backgound information of LSBRX:
http://tinyurl.com/24b9o8
嗯 bikerdoc 說的沒錯,Stan Weinstein's book “Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets”. 這是本股票投資學的好書.
Leveraged bonds could be bombs!
http://www.reuters.com/article/email/idUKN1726029320070717
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118470713201469384.html?mod=yahoo_hs&ru=yahoo
Be careful and good luck.
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