長多依在 中線拉回整理

根據過去美國道瓊近百年來的走勢圖,可以看到總統大選的前一年及當年,股市幾乎都是上漲(見上兩圖,圖中的數字是選舉年),所以美股才有所謂的總統循環 (presidential cycle). 台股也有類似的情形,因此年初以來,就認為台股及美股到明年的總統大選前都將走大多頭, 尤其台股中長線的潛力更雄厚.

7月3日時,認為台股今年保守會到9,800. 沒想到7月26日(週四)台股就漲到9807,指數目標會這麼快就看到(見最下圖).

最近因為次級房貸( subprime loan )及日圓利差交易(yen carry trade)等問題造成美股及全球股市重挫,台股也快速拉回,兩天大跌600多點. 我預估這波的修正要大約2到3個月的時間,低點約在8400左右. 到時應是另一次賺錢的好買點.

美股方面, 這次的跌勢說明美股進入中期修正, 但長線多頭仍未走完, 我預估美股強勢整理的話會回到12,300到12,600附近, 若次級房貸及利差交易嚴重,那11,600,那裡也是480天均線的位置(見中間圖中的藍色線),過去4年多來,以及在美股1990到2000年那波超級大多頭中,拉回到那裡都是不錯的中期買點.

when the sky is falling...

[下午 07:28:56] filterdoc.Chen says: the sky is falling. LOL
[下午 08:02:40] wilburdu 杜 says: don't worry , man,.. we have joe and lonjoe, you're not the tallest one,ha
[下午 08:03:06] filterdoc.Chen says: lol
[下午 08:03:31] filterdoc.Chen says: pu thsi joke on theblog
[下午 08:03:46] filterdoc.Chen says: hehe
[下午 08:03:48] wilburdu 杜 says: oh, maybe you've to worry too
[下午 08:03:56] wilburdu 杜 says: ok, ha

Winston, Look Closely

Hmm.....後面那三個乘風破浪的是何方人物？？
後續。。>>>
唯一記得的是我們的船老大以高速繞小圓圈開了一陣子，船身傾斜45度。至於其他的資訊.....完全忘光光了!

Taiwan Women - 84.6 years

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japanese girls born last year can expect to live to an average age of 85.8 years, making them the longest-lived in the world, according to figures released by the government on Thursday.
Their male compatriots fare less well, with a life expectancy of 79 years, second to Icelandic men at 79.4 years, the Health Ministry said.
Japan's women have topped the world's longevity ranks for 22 years, something researchers have attributed to their healthy diet and tight social ties, among other factors.
Improved treatment of the ageing population's three biggest killers -- cancer, heart disease and stroke -- has helped push life expectancy to record highs, a ministry official said.
After the Japanese, Taiwanese women are the world's second longest-lived at 84.6 years, then Spanish and Swiss women at 83.9 years, the report said.

3 must-have applications

YouSendIt is a web-based, temporary file hosting site, for sending large e-mail attachments. By using YouSendIt's free service, you can send up to 100 MB attachment files without jamming up the recipients email account.

http://www.yousendit.com/cms/compareaccounts

sign up for a free lite account:

http://www.yousendit.com/cms/liteaccount

Roboform is the top-rated Password Manager and Web Form Filler that completely automates password entering and form filling.

http://www.roboform.com/

Try the free version first and if you like it, you can buy the pro version.

Advanced Diary is so much more than just a simple diary! The features of this program: rich text, password protection, ability to insert photos, and much, much more!

If you sit in front of the computer all day, this is a very useful program, just write down your thought or copy and paste what you found on the web, later on you can easily search it back by using a key word.

http://www.csoftlab.com/Diary.html

LA Mini Reunion

These two pictures were taken in front of a Korean tofu house in LA near Winston's company. We visited Winson's company before dinner. I am impressed with the 10 patents that were granted to Winston. Winston has another 21 patents in pending. I hope he hits a big one some day.

I was so glad to talk to Fran, Tofu, Bikedoc65 and star via skype. How can I sign in?

YWang

When we were young

I found these two old photos.
Fran, you still look the same.

Look closely, Winston

居然有人自稱是"特大號文豪".....哈哈

Steaming winter

For escaping the freezing cold for a while, we had a trip to a hot spring resort, Hanmer Spring to get some heat.

Patches of remaining snow on hillsides.

Yes, nice and warm!

Winston's Headquarters

(left) 大文豪在show off 他的新名片。(right) Ywang 夫人及寶貝女兒。

七月天

S. California mini reunion

Boys and Girls:

On Friday evening, we will have a Southern California mini reunion at Winston Hohoho's office - http://www.maxwellsensors.com/. If possible, please log on to Skype, we will be calling you guys.
Winston's Skype name is msi-winstonho. The time is 7-20-07, 6~7 PM LA time (9-10 AM, 7-21-07 Taiwan time).

Ywang and families came down south to visit LA area. Wen-zen, Winston and I will join them and meet at Winston's office and then go have a feast. Hopefully we will generate some pictures to share with everybody.

再談股市投資機會 cree 拉回找買點

上周二登出對cree 及 sandisk 的看法 ,班上同學反應還蠻熱烈的,顯然到了我們這個年紀,很多人或多或少都有投資,而且投資也成為不少同學的生活重心之一,有不同學甚至已成專家.

之前寫了10幾年的投資專欄, 我看我現在可能沒有時間如bikerdoc 所說的,來開個股市部落格,但如有時間到可多來談談股市投資,尤其我看這個行情,是近幾年來少有的大多頭,如果錯失掉,實在可惜.

上周二時,我們指出cree到30元後可能會拉回, 拉回後正好是之前沒進場,或想要加碼的好買點. 未來幾天如果有拉回到27元上下,應是不錯的進場點.

至於sandisk (sndk)可能要到54到56附近才會有較大的壓力; intel (intc)多頭趨勢不變, 28到30才會有較大的壓力,到時看看要不要獲利一趟.

至於台股,未來1到2年的行情很大,不管藍綠誰當選,兩岸關希改善是頗為確定的事, 保守可看到12,000,強勢的話,兩岸如果簽定30或50年和平協定的話,18,000點應是起碼的點數.

短線上,台股漲了不少(還沒漲完),我看好的很多股票如 Ic設計的 創意3443(台積電持股37.6%), 安國8054, 群連8299(這裡檔都是做flah及相關的ic), 聯電的智原3035, 世界最大的nb電池廠-新普6121, led的晶電2448(世界最大的四元紅光led,也是世界第三大的藍光led廠),華上6289(四元紅光全球佔有率25%,僅次於晶電的50%),也都漲幅不小,如有拉回好的買點再切入.

另外,美國預計將於2008年底,回收電視的類比訊號頻道, 因此對3,000萬低收入家庭,有40美元的coupon補助,憑該券可購買D2A的 STB(digital to analogue 的 set-top-box 電視機上盒), 已知台灣的致振3466有接到部份的(對該公司來說很大)訂單, 預估明年eps至少15元,今年約8元.(7/12 早上 修正: 我朋友昨天剛拜訪公司,該公司高層表示這批的毛利率不高, 因此公司估獲利也不會太高. 不知是真如此,還是公司派沒吃到貨,故意說的保守,反正有疑慮,那就算了).

至於道隆兄提到的 oled (organic light emitting diode,有機發光二極體) 是未來新一代的平面顯示器,可以印在彎曲的平面上,但跟led 可做光源不同. 我幾年前剛好也有投資oled 相關類股,也有作部份產業研究.

以2006年來看,根據displaysearch的統計,第一大的是三星約1億美元, lge第2大,9300萬美元,台灣的錸寶是第三大7900萬美元,但都沒賺錢,去年錸寶還大虧,到了年底賣給了三星, 就我的了解,投資oled的風險仍相當大, 實在不如投資未來5到10年遠景亮麗且都已賺錢的 led產業.....以後有空再跟各位同學介紹.

久違了，各位大人！

Star看到部落格裡，大人們有所指示，兩周不現身就要點名。想來我們實在疏於留言久矣，抱歉！抱歉！

實情是這樣的 ---
自從四月小女子與 Star Jr. 去吉隆坡看過賽車後
五月兩人又陪同小女子年邁雙親返鄉探親
六月正好有個機會去捷克旅遊，小女子包袱收拾一下，拋家棄子與同學到東歐遊玩十天。

在這種情況下，Star 除了自身繁忙工作外，還要代理小女子的雜事，難免分身乏術。
不過小女子也有自知之明，經過上半年的悠遊玩樂，下半年要努力表現，否則 Star 可能會採取休妻手段，各位就永遠看不到小女子留言囉！

至於「三井」這樁公案，因為「三井料理美術館」就在寒舍隔壁。放眼望去，寒舍方圓百公尺內，前不著村，後不著店，僅數三井最為接近，親朋好友到訪算是方便的集合地點。其他幾個「井」我們從未參訪過，或許下回大人們有空，我們可以去嘗嘗看，大家一起解惑吧。

What (Really) Happened in 1995?

If you have a few minutes I would like to ask you to read this article:
What (Really) Happened in 1995?
How the Greenspan Fed Screwed Up in the Mid-90s and set the stage for the Greatest Financial Bubble in the History of the World.
by Aaron Krowne

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=292

Finally, this article explained the so called "strong dollar" policy from 1996. ha

More good stuffs at:

http://br.endernet.org/~akrowne/fed_shame.html

Have a nice read.

intel 或 cree 若有拉回 可切入或加碼

1. 之前介紹的 intel (代號intc) 已攻到24.27 ,這邊若有拉回到23.5到24, 是不錯的買點, 可加碼或空手者可切入,應可看到30元上下.

2. 另外在24元上下推薦,作led的 cree ,昨收27元,如有拉回到26.5附近,應該也是不錯的加碼點或空手者的切入點, 之前提過未來12個月內,法人看到50元. 我看不用到12個月,快的話應不要半年. 其短壓在30元附近,到時整理後,可望像intel在22到23的壓力一樣會向上突破.

3. sandisk (代號 sndk)最近受到50元的壓力壓回, 昨收48.4,如有回到46到47元,應是不錯的買點. 50元整理後,我評估可到64元,詳情可看分析師評鑑 . 到時分析師應會再調高其評等.

4.從去年來我就一路看多美股, 預估nasdaq在2650附近整理後,可望向3100到3200挑戰; dow jones在13,200到13,700間整理後,明年11月美國大選前,可向16,000挑戰.

5. 其實,除了台灣股市外,我最強的分析是在石油,黃金,及各國指數期貨 (但因這種商品波動較劇烈,通常只與bikerdoc討論) ,有空再跟各位分析.

6. 至於台股今年保守可攻到9800, 在這之前 9,150附近應會震盪.

我的家人

These pictures were take at Johns Hopkins last month.

豆腐全家福

別人家都在玩,我們家只會吃, 哈. 這是我們全家去吃"三井宴"的全家福.

其實我主要的目的是,在炫耀我這"壞竹也會出好筍",老豆腐的女兒長的比他那媽及爸還漂亮.